Predictions
November 2nd, 2008 at 10:56 am by Jim Shella under Jim Shella's Political Blog
Here are my predictions (first presented on Indiana Week in Review but with further explanation here) for the 2008 Election in Indiana:
President: Leans Obama. This is still a Republican state and John McCain’s last minute visit may still make a difference but I think the Obama organization carries the day.
Governor: Mitch Daniels, hands down, double digits. Tune in to WISH-TV on Election night for details on the mistakes Jill Long Thompson made pursuing a Republican governor who should have been vulnerable in a Democratic year. (He hasn’t even been forced to run a negative ad!)
Attorney General: Greg Zoeller. Did I say it’s still a Republican state? Steve Carter helps Zoeller, so does Mitch Daniels and, while Linda Pence is a good candidate, she did too little TV to pull this off.
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Tony Bennett. Republican.
Congress: Rep. Mark Souder is the most the vulnerable and sounds like a loser in TV interviews so let’s call him one. All of the other 8 incumbents hold on.
Indiana House of Representatives: Democrats hold control. Brian Bosma and the Republicans tried to sneak up on some old-timers including Bill Cochran, Bob Bishoff, and Dennis Avery. That tells me they need gains in places that aren’t readily apparent. Remember, though, if Daniels wins the Republicans need just 50 to win the Speaker’s chair. Democrats need 51.
Bonus Prediction: The referendum to do away with township assessors passes.
Tags: Barack Obama, Brian Bosma, Greg Zoeller, Jill Long Thompson, John McCain, Linda Pence, Mark Souder, Mitch Daniels, Tony Bennett, WISH-TV
Jim,
There are 43 separate referenda on a township-by-township basis. There are 8 in Marion County (all but Decatur). I think 4-5 assessors will be merged after a yes vote.
How about a prediction on the IPS bond issue? Prediction: it goes down.
I agree with your other predictions.
-No Name
I think the statewide races, with the exception of Daniels, goes to the Democrats. I think with there is going to be an incredible Democrat vote coming out of Lake and Marion County. I think it’s a Democrat base election. While I see those voting for Obama scratching for Daniels, I don’t see any reason they would also scratch for Zoeller and Bennett. I think Pence may actually lead the ticket statewide as she’ll get Democrat votes in southern Indiana who might not vote for Obama. I wouldn’t bet the farm on that prediction though. I would bet the farm on Obama, Daniels, and Pence winning. I’d only bet a tool shed on Richard Wood winning. Of course, I don’t own a farm or a tool shed so I don’t have anything to lose.
I, like you, thought Daniels was a vulnerable candidate, who could have been beaten with the right candidate in this Democrat year. To not even force him to run a negative ad, well that’s a poor effort by JLT. I think a Democrat tidal wave will keep Daniels’ win a bit short of double digits.
As far as Daniels helping out Zoeller, I’m assuming you’re talking about the Governor’s coattails and not direct assistance he has lent. I have yet to see any Daniels/Zoeller ads which would have helped Zoeller immensely. The underreported story of this election cycle is how unhappy a lot of Republicans have been with the AG’s office and how they won’t be that dissapoointed if AG Steve Carter’s lieutenant, Greg Zoeller, loses.
I’m not sure the caution on picking the House. Of course, the Democrats will retain control. Almost all the close races last year were Republicans barely edging out Democrats. I think the D’s will hit 59 seats in the house.
I agree that Souder will lose, making Indiana’s congressional delegation 6-3 in favor of the Democrats. Oh, and Obama will win Indiana getting 375 electoral votes.
I remain puzzled at Senator Lugar’s lack of involvement in the McCain campaign in Indiana. His Indy office said he was not asked. I wonder what the story behind the story is? I also wonder why Senator Lugar is so distant and not available for we the great unwashed here in Indiana to speak with him in person or on talk radio?