New numbers show that fewer people are collecting unemployment benefits in Indiana (9.6% in September vs. 9.9% in August and 10.7% in July) and more are working (up 4,400 in a month.)   It’s good news.

Yet when Governor Mitch Daniels unveiled quarterly revenue figures less than two weeks ago, they showed a shortfall of $250 million dollars from the state forecast over just three months.  The bad news continues on that front.  It’s why Daniels questioned the unemployment figures at the time.   He suggested that more people must be out of work than what the numbers show, because of the poor economic performance. 

But what if the numbers are right and spending habits have changed?

That’s why the governor also made a request for the revenue forecast committee to develop new formulas for predicting state income.  That’s necessary if  people are holding on to more of their money, spending less, and therefore paying fewer taxes even if they are back to work.