New Poll shows Donnelly ahead (slightly)September 27th, 2012 at 4:15 pm by Jim Shella under Jim Shella's Political Blog
The matchup between Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republican Richard Mourdock has been tight from the beginning and nothing has changed. The Howey/DePauw Battleground poll, a joint venture by Democratic pollster Fred Yang and Republican pollster Christine Matthews, gives Donnelly a two point lead, 40% to 38%.
Libertarian Andy Horning gets 7% in the poll as some Lugar Republicans see him as an alternative to Mourdock.
The poll shows Mourdock 14 points behind fellow Republican Mitt Romney and 9 points behind Mike Pence in terms of overall support. Joe Donnelly’s campaign likes the result. “He has a more favorable rating and Richard Mourdock has a Republican problem,” says campaign spokeswoman Elizabeth Shapell. “So, we’re seeing the environment necessary for Joe to be successful on Election day.”
Mourdock also suffers from a gender gap, possible motivation for this appearance in the Indy Style kitchen. He expects the race to be close to the end. “We know we’re going to be working till 6 pm in the Central time zones of Indiana on Election Day,” says Mourdock. “We’re very confident we’re gonna win this race, very confident.”
But the poll also shows that Republicans are still a stronger party in Indiana and that’s why Donnelly keeps distancing himself from fellow Democrats. “I am the sixth most conservative Democrat in the entire House of Representatives,” he says. “I have a very independent voting record.”
The poll shows that 15% of Indiana voters still haven’t decided on Donnelly or Mourdock. It has a margin of error of 3.5% and that means that, statistically, this race is a dead heat.