Wed. Aft. Winter Weather System Update

December 4th, 2013 at 3:24 pm by under Weather

THE LATEST OVERVIEW:  Well, the new models have come in.  The overall orientation of the pattern has stayed the same, but there have been some minor shifts of the bands to the south and east.  This will still be a winter storm system for central Indiana.  Here is the latest breakdown.

WAVE #1 (THU. PM – FRI. AM):  This will be when we the transition from rain to winter weather.  So with that in mind, most of Thursday will see rain, then we can see some sleet mix in late Thursday evening, and then from NW to SE we will see a transition to all snow.  The key in snow totals from round 1 will be how long does it take to transition to snow.  I think with this system, the snow totals will be lighter south as more sleet will mix in.  The metro area could see some light sleet and light snow accumulations for the Friday morning commute.  I would say around 2″ of snow is possible in the Indy Metro area for Friday morning’s commute.

micro_1   micro_2   acc_snow_1

WAVE #2 (FRIDAY – FRIDAY NIGHT):  This will still be the stronger snow maker of the 2 systems.  The difference with some of the afternoon model runs is that the heavy bad has shifted SE about 20 miles, so we will shift some of the bands a bit SE.  Here is the latest breakdown of winter weather.  This round will start around Noon and last until just after midnight.  There will be a heavy band set up with this system, but it will be narrow, and trying to nail down the exact location of this will be difficult.

  • 1″ – 2″ Crawfordsville to Tipton to Marion (Grant County)
  • 2″ – 5″ Terre Haute – Indy – Muncie
  • 5″ – 8″  Bloomington – Columbus – Shelbyville – Greensburg – Richmond (some spots could possibly see slightly higher amounts)

micro_3   micro_4   acc_snow_final

WAVE#3 (SUNDAY NIGHT – MONDAY):  This may see a wintry mix of ice and snow.  Too early to put any numbers to this at this time.

With these types of systems, there will be sharp cut-offs in a short distance between a few inches of snow and higher totals.  We will continue to fine-tune the forecast as new data becomes available, and try not to make drastic changes to numbers unless absolutely necessary.

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