Remember last Sunday? The high was 57 and you may have given up on May. Patchy frost struck Monday morning and you may have given up on Spring in general. But if we’ve learned anything from the Pacers…we’ve learned to not give up. And now, we have to learn to Beat The Heat.

Temperatures will remain above average through Thursday. A narrow ridge of high pressure should keep most of Indiana dry until Tuesday, when the ridge begins breaking down, and a few storms could be severe. Storms are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could continue into Thursday. Next weekend (for the moment) looks pretty awesome.

Two asterisks in the weather story. First: short term computer models have stubbornly painted some light showers over generally eastern Indiana for the midday hours today. Second: parts of northwest Indiana may get bitten by scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon. That could come as close as Lafayette or Kokomo.

Zero visibilities in many places south of Indy this morning, with the fog generally lifting through about 10am this morning. After that, hotter sunshine and muggy weather sticks around for a few days.

A misty morning across central Indiana. Temps are in the mid 40s. One cold front down; one to go. The latest big rains have moved along to the southeast, but a thick blanket of clouds will remain through the mid to late morning. Then: some sunshine, and a quick shot of showers late this afternoon, from a second cold front. The most likely time around the Track and the Metro Indy area is between 4 and 6pm. It won’t be too windy this morning, but you can expect gusts to 25 mph briefly along with and just after the showers.

Back below normal on temps for a few days. The sky will clear late tonight and Sunday morning and temps will fall into the mid to upper 30s. Frost is not likely Sunday morning because of the wind speed expected. A better chance of frost will be around early Monday morning with lighter winds and a mostly clear sky. Temperatures turn around after that low point, and it looks like a pretty awesome week.

Weekend rain is up to three-quarters of an inch in Terre Haute and Bloomington. There is a sharp cut-off to the north and northeast, with only a tenth of an inch (so far) in Indianapolis. The same pattern persists today, but it appears the precip could be more evenly distributed tomorrow, before finally fading Monday night.

Same weather storyline as yesterday: an area of low pressure is “cut off” from the main jet stream. The low’s placement means the rain remains mainly to the south of Indy, although it is farther north today than it was Saturday. Weekend rainfall totals are going to approach one inch near Terre Haute and Bloomington, but will be much lower in Indy. Chances are slim for showers today in Kokomo and Muncie.

The ratio of clouds and rain to possible peaks of sunshine will be the main factor in how warm your town gets today.

There is a slight shower chance tonight and tomorrow, until the upper level low finally pulls away Monday night.

Just heard a finisher on our Mini Marathon coverage speak of the the tough final leg of the race. I mentioned overnight that the wind would probably be the biggest weather story of the day. It was gusting 20+ mph last hour at the Indy Airport. But it still beats heat and humidity, right?

The biggest issue for runners this morning will probably be the breeze from the east/southeast anywhere from 10-20 mph. Temperatures have been mild overnight and will remain around 60 for the race.

Deep low pressure that is “cut-off” from the jet stream will keep the rain spinning to the southwest of us today. Evansville could end up with a couple of inches of rain.  Showers are likely at the Kentucky Derby today. The best chances of showers, and the thickest clouds, will remain south of I-74. Folks in Kokomo, Anderson, Muncie and Richmond may not see anything beyond a sprinkle.

Proximity to the center of low pressure will be reflected in high temps, which will be higher to the northeast and lower in the southwest.

The upper level low finally gets a push Sunday night. We might see leftover clouds Monday, but temps should return to above average levels for much of next week.

Running this morning? It appears you won’t be running in the rain. A stray sprinkle is still possible, but steady rain *should* remain south/west of Indy, at least through the morning. Race time temps will be around 59-61 degrees, with an east/southeast wind from 12-20 mph. You might notice that!

This morning’s rain pushes the Indy total (as of 9:30) to 8.51 inches for the month. Just another tenth of an inch and we’ll “officially” have the wettest April on record. For now, it just feels like it:) Vipir radar shows the heaviest rain now north and east of Indy, which is likely to be the trend this afternoon, although drizzle and fog are possible statewide.

Spotty showers show up already on Forecast 8 Vipir Radar and there’s more where that came from. Rain since later Saturday has totaled up to an third of an inch around the state. Low pressure creeps northeastward through the state today, keeping the shower chance alive. An isolated storm is possible. Fog and drizzle will also be a factor. Visibility is down to two miles early on in Indianapolis. This latest precip brings us to within about two-tenths of an inch of second place on the all time April precipitation tote board. The rain should be confined to east of Indianapolis by the evening and by gone by midnight.

I think you’ll like most of Monday and Tuesday, but there is a slight chance of showers very early Tuesday morning from Indianapolis northward. Don’t panic over some of the icons on the 8 Day chart – the shower chance is only for a few hours Tuesday morn, and a few hours Wednesday night. Things WILL turn gloomier Thursday, with an increase in storm chances. An upper level low may linger through the weekend. If you’re participating in the Mini be ready for temps in the 50s and some showers.