The weather looks to be lousy in Cincinnati for the Colts. It will be chilly with a chance of a wintry mix. Temps will be in the 30s.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for most places along and south of I-70. The watch begins Thursday night and last through Friday evening. Here is a map.
THE LATEST OVERVIEW: Well, the new models have come in. The overall orientation of the pattern has stayed the same, but there have been some minor shifts of the bands to the south and east. This will still be a winter storm system for central Indiana. Here is the latest breakdown.
WAVE #1 (THU. PM – FRI. AM): This will be when we the transition from rain to winter weather. So with that in mind, most of Thursday will see rain, then we can see some sleet mix in late Thursday evening, and then from NW to SE we will see a transition to all snow. The key in snow totals from round 1 will be how long does it take to transition to snow. I think with this system, the snow totals will be lighter south as more sleet will mix in. The metro area could see some light sleet and light snow accumulations for the Friday morning commute. I would say around 2″ of snow is possible in the Indy Metro area for Friday morning’s commute.
WAVE #2 (FRIDAY – FRIDAY NIGHT): This will still be the stronger snow maker of the 2 systems. The difference with some of the afternoon model runs is that the heavy bad has shifted SE about 20 miles, so we will shift some of the bands a bit SE. Here is the latest breakdown of winter weather. This round will start around Noon and last until just after midnight. There will be a heavy band set up with this system, but it will be narrow, and trying to nail down the exact location of this will be difficult.
- 1″ – 2″ Crawfordsville to Tipton to Marion (Grant County)
- 2″ – 5″ Terre Haute – Indy – Muncie
- 5″ – 8″ Bloomington – Columbus – Shelbyville – Greensburg – Richmond (some spots could possibly see slightly higher amounts)
WAVE#3 (SUNDAY NIGHT – MONDAY): This may see a wintry mix of ice and snow. Too early to put any numbers to this at this time.
With these types of systems, there will be sharp cut-offs in a short distance between a few inches of snow and higher totals. We will continue to fine-tune the forecast as new data becomes available, and try not to make drastic changes to numbers unless absolutely necessary.
RIGHT NOW: Temps in cent. #Indiana are in the 50s and even a 60 degree reading in Terre Haute with soupy conditions.
WINTER STORM POTENTIAL UPDATE: Some of the new models runs have slightly shifted some of the heavier snow totals a touch southward. We will carefully analyze these new models and let you know what it means for us in just a bit.
OVERVIEW: Weather models are lining up better and better this morning, so we are confident enough to start putting snow projections for the winter weather through Friday night. Here is a rundown of timing, and amounts. Having said that we will continue to track changes carefully and update totals as needed.
WAVE #1 (THU. NIGHT / FRI. AM): The first wave of winter weather will arrive Thursday night into Friday Morning. Precip will start as rain, then as colder air arrives, we will see a wintry mix in some places, and a changeover to all snow. By the Friday morning commute, we could see accumulations around 1″-2″ in NW viewing, 2″-4″ of snow in the metro area, then 1″-2″ plus some sleet accumulations in southern Indiana.
WAVE #2 (FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT): This looks to be the biggest winter weather maker. Lots of moisture combined with cold air, and a lot of energy support should create moderate to heavy snow by Friday afternoon and Friday night. Snow should wind down with this wave late Friday night and should be gone by Saturday Daybreak.
- The heaviest snow will be the farther south you go.
- Areas around Lafayette to Kokomo could see 1″-3″ of snow.
- Crawfordsville to Tipton to Marion line could see 3″-5″.
- Most of the metro area right now looks to fall into the 5″-8″ snowfall category.
- Areas like Bloomington, Columbus, Greensburg could see over 8″ of snow.
These are the current projections, we will fine tune these later today and tonight.
WAVE #3 (PM SUN. TO MONDAY AM.): This system has the potential for additional accumulating snow and maybe a wintry mix, but it is too early to assign numbers for this just yet. We will add more to this as we get closer.
Stay with the Forecast 8 team as we will constantly update this as more data becomes available.
The latest forecast models are coming in…and the Forecast 8 team is updating your forecast for the noon show on WISH-TV.
Through Saturday 7am we will have 5″ to 8″ of total snow accumulation. There will be a sharp cut-off to the north and to the south. The freezing line will be right over the southern edge of Indiana during this event, so some ice could also mix in to places south of I-70. Some isolated spots could get 8″ of snow or more (Bloomington, Columbus). This is all after one round of snow daybreak Friday and another round Friday night.
We will have third round of a wintry mix Sunday and more snow accumulation for daybreak Monday. Stay tuned for further updates.
The dense fog has settled into Kokomo, Marion and Muncie…as well as around Terre Haute. The fog will stick around until 10am. Visibility may be reduced to under a quarter of a mile in patchy areas.
There are two winter systems that will move through Indiana. The first system doesn’t arrive until Thursday night.
This morning there are areas of patchy dense fog. Visibility is under a mile in areas west of Indianapolis. In Indianapolis the fog is high enough that it isn’t causing reduced visibility at ground-level, but the fog is hiding the tall downtown buildings. The patchy dense fog remains through 10am this morning. Temperatures are mild in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Highs today get very warm in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A few light rain showers are possible with gloomy conditions all afternoon. Lows tonight start falling to the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Temps on Thursday continue to fall throughout the day. Forecast 8 Futurecast shows rain first for Thursday…but as the temps fall the rain changes to all snow by 7pm. Areas along I-70 and to the north could see 2″ to 4″ of snow by 7am Friday. Southern Indiana may get more ice so that could hinder those snow totals. We are going with 1″ to 2″ of snow and ice through Friday daybreak. Another round of snow moves in Friday evening that could add a few more inches of snow to our totals.
We get a break from the snow on Saturday afternoon. A second system, and our third round of snow moves in Sunday through Monday. This system is a little more uncertain with the exact timing, track and totals. Stay tuned for further updates from the Forecast 8 Team.
Which would you rather have? 60 degrees? Or 6 inches of snow? Well, everyone could get their wish this week. A very active pattern will bring dramatic changes to the 8 day forecast, and that includes everything from warm temps, to heavy snow. We still have some time (and uncertainty) in the snowfall forecast (details below).
Mild temperatures remain. Overnight lows will be closer to normal lows with most spots staying in the upper 40s to near 50 overnight. Clouds will also remain in place. Rain chances remain small, but a light sprinkle or drizzle could be possible.
Very warm with temperatures in the 50s for most of the day, and approaching 60s by afternoon. Rain showers will be likely for most of midday into the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will stay mild most of the evening, but once the cold front passes, temperatures will drop quickly. Lows could be into the 30s by daybreak. Rain will taper off overnight.
Thursday will continue the cool-down with temperatures likely to continue dropping throughout the day. Some sunshine the early part of the day may keep numbers into the 30s to near 40 but the first of 3 wintry systems arrives late Thursday night. The system could start as a bit of wintry mix (rain, snow and sleet) but will likely change to all snow. However, there rem
ains some differences in tracks of this system and a more northern track could leave southern Indiana with a very cold rain, and northern Indiana with a bought of snow (1 to 2 inches).
Expect accumulation of 1 to 2 inches through Friday morning
Some snow may be ongoing through early morning before a brief break ensues. The second wintry system appears to have a LOT of moisture. What will be most critical will be the rain/snow line. Areas just to the north of this line will likely see the heaviest amounts of snow. Several models call for that line to set up closer to Cincinatti and Louisville, but a few aggressive models dump up to 8″+ of snow across parts of central Indiana.
This far out, it will be difficult to pinpoint accumulation amounts for specific locations. But additional accumulations of 2-4″ could be possible, with some locations possibly receiving 6″ or more. Just where that sets up in Indiana remains uncertain at this point. Low temperatures will drop into the mid 10s.
Saturday’s forecast will be depend on the amount of snowfall from Friday’s system, but regardless, it will be cold. Highs will be near 30 with partly cloudy skies. Lows will drop into 10s again.
The 3rd wintry system arrives late Sunday night and continues through Monday morning. This system could be more of a wintry mix than the previous two, but if enough snow is on the ground from System 2, temperatures could remain cold.
Another shot of cold air arrives next week. Expect temperatures to remain below freezing.
Mild temperatures this afternoon and evening will remain in place as long as south winds continue. Area of light rain remain to the north, but a few sprinkles could be possible through evening and overnight, especially to the north.
Big changes will stay in the forecast for the remainder of this week. Temperatures will remain very warm through Wednesday but Arctic air will surge into Indiana by Thursday, changing rain to snow. Snow will stay in the forecast through Friday with temperatures dropping into the teens by the weekend.