Republican Gabrielle Campo is frustrated that Congressman Andre Carson (d-7th district) won’t agree to debate her.  That’s easy to understand from her perspective.  Yet its the Congressman’s perspective that rules here.

Rep. Carson is a heavy favorite in a Democratic district and Ms. Campo is late to the party (replacing Jon Elrod on the ballot.)  She has no TV ads and no yard signs, not in my neighborhood, anyway.  She also has no venue, sponsor, or broadcast outlet for a debate, only an empty request.  From what I’ve seen it doesn’t even rise to the level of a demand.

Campo and the Republicans need to mount a serious campaign before they can expect Carson or the media to care.

The Indiana Delegation breakfast at the Democratic National Convention this morning was a light-hearted affair.

Congressman Brad Ellsworth told a story of how, when he made his first speech on the floor of Congress, he misspoke saying, “I want to spank the Congressman from Minnesota.”  He says that sort of thing doesn’t go over well in Indiana.

Andre Carson told delegates to call him if they have problems.  He said, “I have a 21 month old so don’t call after 8.  But call me.”

Finally, Lieutenant Governor candidate Dennie Oxley went after Governor Mitch Daniels.  “When he comes to southern Indiana, he talks like me,” said Oxley.  “That accent comes and goes.  Mine stays the same.”

-Can Mitch Daniels separate himself from the Bush failures?

-Will Evan Bayh campaign for Jill Long Thompson the way he did for Hillary Clinton?

-Will the Jon Elrod/André Carson fall match compare in any way to the March special election?

-Is Attorney General candidate Jon Costas the heir apparent to the Daniels legacy?

-Has the window closed for Jim Schellinger to give a meaningful endorsement to Jill Long Thompson? 

-Is the window still open for a UAW endorsement?

Its time to revisit my election predictions and, since I took the rap for missing the Greg Ballard win last November, point out how well I did this time.

-President:  I first said it leans Clinton, and then hedged by saying it was too close to call.  It was close but I learned in grade school to go with your first inclination and for some reason forgot.  Either way, I wasn’t wrong.

-Governor:  I picked Jill Long Thompson and its Jill Long Thompson.  Don’t trouble me with margins.

-7th District (D):  I said André Carson and he ran away with it.

-5th District (R):   That Dan Burton pick was a good one even if John McGoff exceeded expectations (mine anyway.)

-Incumbent Lawmaker (D&R):  I said nobody falls due to the property tax furor.   No one did.

Its my normal practice to give my read on the races that matter on the day before, so here goes with my predictions for the Indiana Primary:

-President:  I said on Indiana Week in Review Friday that it leans Clinton.  I think it did.. on Friday.  I no longer do.  I think its up for grabs.  I don’t know who will win.

-Governor (D):  Jill Long Thompson.  She didn’t run much of a campaign and read (repeat: read) a terrible speech at the Jefferson Jackson Day Dinner but I still think she wins.  Infer what you like about how that reflects on Jim Schellinger’s campaign.

-7th District (D):  I think André Carson gets through.  Woody Myers needed to go negative to get over the top and didn’t.  The fact that he and David Orentlicher did battle with one another over the final weekend is good for André.

-5th District (R):  John McGoff’s effort to take out Dan Burton fails.  McGoff fell short on money and the attention given to the Presidential race hurts him.

-Incumbent Lawmaker (D&R):  Nobody falls due to the property tax furor.  Check back in the fall.

Is it too late?

David Orentlicher hit the air with negative ads today.  He goes after both André Carson and Woody Myers.  By the way, those are the two guys in the lead in the 7th Congressional District in case it wasn’t obvious.

Here are some thumbnail sketches from my perspective on the candidate performances in the 7th District debate last night:

David Orentlicher–He was over prepared and over caffeinated.  Nevertheless, he gets points for being aggressive, drawing contrasts, and challenging the other candidates.

André Carson–He held his own against a group of challengers who are all more experienced.  He needed to make sure he didn’t stumble and he did that.

Carolene Mays–She got stronger as the debate went along, but probably wasn’t strong enough.  More than any of the candidates, she needed to hit a home run and didn’t.

Woody Myers–His was a strong performance.  He demonstrated a firm grasp of the issues  while displaying confidence and gravitas.

The four leading Democrats in the 7th District Congressional race (André Carson, Woody Myers, Carolene Mays, and David Orentlicher) debate tonight at IUPUI and on MyNDY at 7 pm, the only televised debate of the campaign.

It will be an hour-long event.  I will serve as moderator and pose all of the questions, though questions solicited from viewers will also be included.  We have a “lightning round” scheduled which calls for short answers to a series of questions.  Answers to the other questions are just one minute each to encourage candidates to be direct.

Look for questions on issues that include jobs, healthcare, war, immigration, and religion.  I intend to make this about issues but also about some of the things being said in this campaign.

André Carson’s campaign just put out a radio ad that hits tomorrow.. 60 seconds.. Barack Obama speaking.  The endorsement is the payback for Carson’s super delegate endorsement of Obama.

What else Carson get?

Look for a TV ad featuring Obama, plus, the Illinois Senator led the rookie Congressman to some big donors in New York earlier this week to help get the message on the air. 

TV ads for Congressman André Carson slated to run on Tuesday, Wednesday, and today did not air because of a failure to make the required advance payments.

Carson campaign manager Alex Zwerdling confirmed this afternoon that no payment was made.  He, at first, suggested that that it was the result of a strategic decision, then changed his answer to, “No comment.”