Some of you pointed out that I was one-for-two on my caucus predictions in the 7th Congressional District over the weekend. That will get you to the big leagues in other lines of work.

While I correctly picked Democrat Andre Carson, I underestimated Republican Jon Elrod. Elrod is fast making a career of exceeding expectations and he, again, begins this race for the March 11th special election as an underdog.

Carson has more name ID, favorable demographics but writing Elrod off is a bad idea.

Meantime, Democrat Robin Winston put out a news release to say he won’t run in the May primary. How crowded will that field be?

The filing deadline has come and gone and there are 9 Democrats running in the special election for the 7th District, including Andre Carson, David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays, but there are notable ommissions from the list.

Former Health Commissioner Woody Myers sent a letter explaining that he will wait for the May primary before he runs, but what about State Representative Greg Porter? He attended a forum Monday but didn’t file.

And how about former state chairman Robin Winston? There’s no filing from him, though he’s been laying the groundwork for a campaign.

Republicans won’t complete filing till tomorrow but they have four candidates so far. Former Steve Goldsmith aide Tom Rose, State Representate John Elrod, Greg Stroude, and Gabrielle Campo. State Chairman Murray Clark originally said he expected about a half dozen filings.

Will Carl Brizzi get in?

State Representative Carolene Mays (d-Indianapolis) is a candidate in the Saturday caucus that will choose a nominee in the 7th District special election March 11th. She walked into Democratic HQ to fill out the paperwork minutes ago.

Mays joins Julia Carson’s grandson, Andre Carson, political newcomer Randle Pollard, and Marion County Treasurer Mike Rodman. She says she will also be a candidate in the May primary.

Andre Carson left state Democratic Headquarters with a handful of papers this morning, preparing to file as a candidate for Congress in the 7th Congressional district.

Carson confirmed his intention to run but declined an interview on the subject until he can send a letter to the precinct committeemen who will choose a replacement for his grandmother, the late Julia Carson.

As for the committeemen, Democratic chairman Dan Parker points out that 560 of them will take part in a caucus to choose the nominee (Andre’s the favorite, all of a sudden) on January 12.  On February 16th there will be slating for the May primary election and only 425 will take part.  Its the result of redistricting that was ordered after Parker scheduled his caucus.

Marion County Chairman Mike O’Connor determines which committeemen get cut out for slating.

While its still too early to get out the scorecard for candidates in the 7th District, its not too early to familiarize yourself with some of the rules that will be in play early next year.

The Republicans and Democrats will each choose a nominee for a Special Election to replace Julia Carson and the party caucuses could take place as early as January 12th.  That doesn’t leave much campaign time for candidates who likely won’t declare until after Christmas.

But, wait, there’s also a primary in that district in May and the filing deadline for that contest begins January 22nd.  Its entirely possible we will see candidates running for the primary who are not nominees in the special. 

That means candidates from the same party running for the same seat but in two different elections at the same time.

Keeping score could be difficult.

The long list of politicians considering a run to fill the vacancy in the 7th Congressional District created by Julia Carson’s death are all silent during this period of mourning.

Bart Peterson is not.

Peterson ruled out a 7th District candidacy in an interview with News 8’s Eric Halvorson today.  “That’s not something I wanna do,” said the outgoing Mayor, “That’s not a job I’ve had a real strong passion to do.”

Peterson added that no one could ever twist his arm to get him to run for the office.  You can catch his comments tonight on 24 Hour News 8 at 11.

To understand what a unique politician Julia Carson was, you needed to see the late Congresswoman’s garage on Election day.  It was a behive of activity, ground zero in a get-out-the-vote effort that was separate from any conducted by the Democratic Party.

A big part of Julia Carson’s legacy is her legendary ability to turn out the vote.  The Wall Street Journal questioned some of the tactics she and her supporters used in an editorial it published a few years ago, but the Journal, like the rest of us in the media, never had an inside look at the operation.

I did get close, close enough to see the rows of card tables, and stacks of grocery bags, people coming and going, and Julia giving instructions.  Some in her own party question whether she turned out voters for any candidates other than herself, but that was their job, wasn’t it?

Julia did things her own way and that meant the Party often was not consulted.  The heartbeat of her Congressional office, her campaigns, and her family life was always centered in her home in the 2500 block of Park.  When we did interviews with Julia that’s usually where they took place.  Its an old house in an old neighbood and when Julia made it to Congress she upgraded but didn’t move.

She built an extension on the back of the home that became her primary living space and constructed a new, bigger garage.

Let’s say you’re a Democrat in the Indiana House of Representatives with a desire to run for Congress in the 7th Congressional District.  Respect for Julia Carson’s current circumstances prevents you from campaigning in any public way, so, other than putting an old Carson campaign sign in your yard, what can you do?

Well, you could remind your current constituents (most of whom live in the 7th) what a good job you’re doing now.  You could send out a four-page, full color flyer promoting your property tax plan. 

That’s what David Orentlicher did. 

Of course, Orentlicher may be just doing his job, but when was the last time you got a pre-session mailing from a state lawmaker that didn’t include a survey?

Respect for Julia Carson and her current circumstances will keep any candidates or potential candidates for the 7th District Congressional seat from engaging in public campaign activities or pronouncements, but there is behind the scenes work taking place.

For example, Marion County Democrats need to fill over 100 vacancies among precinct committeemen.  There are over 680 precincts in the 7th and, in a possible special election, the committeemen would pick the party nominee.  

Recruitment is underway.

All the buzz about Julia Carson’s illness inevitably leads to talk about how a vacancy in Congress is filled. It requires a special election and the reason some folks are unaware could be because they’ve never seen one.

The last special election for Congress in Indiana took place in 1989. Dan Coats created the vacancy in what was then the 4th Congressional District when he was appointed by Governor Bob Orr to fill a vacancy in the U. S. Senate. (Dan Quayle gave up his Senate seat to become Vice President.)

Trivia question: Who won that special election?

Answer: Current candidate for governor Jill Long Thompson.