This year’s battle for the U.S. Senate in Indiana may soon become the most expensive political race in state history.
If that happens, it will because of spending by special interests and Washington PACs that have so far spent about $12 million here.  The money goes to TV ads and, interestingly, it is split almost evenly between ads supporting Republican Richard Mourdock and ads supporting Democrat Joe Donnelly.

On Tuesday three organizations including the moderate PAC known as Center Forward combined to buy a million dollars worth of airtime to run ad attacking Richard Mourdock.  Democrat Joe Donnelly appreciates the support, suggesting that it caught conservatives by surprise.  “They thought they could buy Indiana’s Senate seat,” said Donnelly.  “It turns out not so much, that the people of Indiana are going to make that decision.”

Meantime, the PAC know as Club for Growth Action just announced a half million dollar purchase of airtime to attack Donnelly with a new ad.  Club for Growth Action wants voters to think about which party will control the Senate where Democrat Harry Reid is now the majority leader, and that’s what Richard Mourdock wants, too.  “That’s why you’re seeing millions of dollars coming in from Harry Reid to help my opponent,” said Mourdock. “It’s why you’re going to see more and more of that coming in from the George Soros’s and the people on the Democratic side and, to be sure there are people coming in helping us from outside this state.”

It’s an atmosphere where candidates have little control and Donnelly doesn’t like it.  “This system is, unfortunately, really broken,” he said.

The record for spending in an Indiana political race was set in 2004 when Mitch Daniels and Joe Kernan spent over $33 million in the race for governor.  Spending in the Senate race is well over $20 million already and the end to that spending is not yet in sight.

Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock is getting new help today from one of the outside groups that attacked Dick Lugar for his benefit during the GOP primary race.  The Club for Growth adds an interesting twist to the Senate race because the Washington-based political action committee led by former Indiana Congressman Chris Chocola.  He lost his seat in Congress to Joe Donnelly, the candidate now under attack in Club for Growth ads.

The new ads seek to undo the bi-partisan image Joe Donnelly touts in his own ads calling him a “typical Washington liberal.”  It’s an $800,000 ad buy.  For Chocola and the Club for Growth it’s an attack on an old opponent.  Chocola beat Joe Donnelly in 2004 and lost to him in 2006.  Reached by phone in Elkhart, he said it’s not personal, “This is about the country.” said Chocola. “It’s not about me or him.  It’s about having policies that get us back on track.”

That’s the same reason Club for Growth attacked Dick Lugar in the spring.  Then, Mourdock welcomed the help and now his campaign spokesman says the Club for Growth ads are accurate.  New Mourdock ads contain a similar message saying, “Washington politicians like President Obama and Congressman Donnelly had their chance but they’ve only made things worse.”

A Donnelly campaign spokesman says the ads are evidence that Mourdock’s Washington supporters have hit the panic button.  The Democrat wants to focus on jobs.  “Richard Mourdock wants to play a national game,” says Donnelly.  “He wants to get involved in national discussions.  I want to make sure the family in Bedford, or Evansville, or Mitchell has a chance to have a good job next year.”

But if Joe Donnelly is to win the Senate race he must defeat Chris Chocola again.

The GOP Senate primary between Richard Lugar and Richard Mourdock is, in some ways, a national race.  Groups from outside Indiana are spending far more than the candidates are.

“Vote against Richard Mourdock,” blares an ad from the American Action Network.  “Too many problems, a risk we can’t afford.”

The goal is to help incumbent GOP Senator Richard Lugar.  The target of those ads, Richard Mourdock, says voters see them for what they are.  “It’s nonsense,” says Mourdock.  “It’s over the top.”

“This time Indiana Republicans have a choice for Senate,” begin an ad by the Club for Growth.  Its goal is to help Mourdock, who says, “They deserve their right to be heard.”  When asked if outside ads are good when they’re on your behalf and bad when they’re not, Mourdock says,  “Sure.”

But consider this:  While Richard Lugar has spent close to $2 million dollars on TV ads and Mourdock over $400,000, political action committees have spent more than both candidates combined, about $2.37 million.  The Lugar campaign doesn’t like it.  “Most people in politics today would prefer a system that has a greater degree of transparency,” says spokesman Andy Fisher, “and campaigns that are contolled by the candidates.”

So far, the independent money favors Mourdock.  The Club for Growth has spent $1.2 million on television while the American Action Network tab is at $636,000.

Will outside groups decide this race?  “We’ll know in three weeks,” says Fisher.

In the meantime, even ads from the candidates are about the outside money.  A new Lugar ad says, “Richard Mourdock’s already sold out to DC outsiders.”

Efforts to reach those Political Action Committees for comment have been unsuccessful.  Apparently, they want their ads to do all the talking.

My latest column in the Indianapolis Business Journal:

I ran into Richard Mourdock in a Statehouse hallway the other day and I gave him a bad time.

“I’m surprised to see you here,” I said. “The Lugar folks say you never come to work anymore.”

The man who is challenging U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar in the 2012 GOP primary hung his head and quietly talked about what a “slog” a statewide campaign is. He said that he had just experienced an “introspective weekend.” Might he leave the race? Not a chance.

There’s too much invested now, including $100,000 of his own money. But is he on a fool’s errand?

One of our producers wondered that the other day when I volunteered to work a Friday night (not my usual practice) to do a story on the Senate race. Aware of the fact that Lugar has $3.8 million in the bank and Mourdock has $300,000, the producer asked, “Can Mourdock win this thing?”

“The short answer is, yes,” was my response. Mourdock doesn’t have the gravitas, the experience, or the fundraising ability Lugar has, but this race isn’t about him. It’s about the Tea Party movement and how Lugar is the biggest target on the horizon for national organizations looking to put another pelt on the wall to demonstrate their clout in Washington.

That’s why when the Tea Party Express sent representatives from Georgia and California to endorse Mourdock, they couldn’t answer a simple question about why they support the challenger. All the discussion was about their belief that Lugar must go. After I asked repeatedly for a reason they support Mourdock, the candidate finally stepped in and listed the issues they had talked about.

It was the same when FreedomWorks, the political action committee led by former Texas congressman Dick Armey, sent a representative from Virginia to grant Mourdock an endorsement. He brought along signs for the crowd (made up of local Tea Party members) that read “Retire Lugar.” He passed out a seven-page list of grievances against Lugar that includes the same vote for a successful New York City bailout that was the subject of Club for Growth TV ads earlier this year.

Endorsements generally come with donations attached but there will be none forthcoming from FreedomWorks. These folks don’t want to bolster the message being put out by the Mourdock campaign. They want to send their own message and they will. Look for lots of what are known as independent expenditures in the coming months. They will be attacks on Lugar.

Mourdock, meantime, doesn’t want to be called a Tea Party candidate but, rather, a coalition candidate. He cites support from a number of GOP county chairs. Those people, however, are also Tea Party supporters.

Max Pappas of Freedom Works told me his group will be involved in just two GOP Senate primaries involving incumbents in 2012—Indiana and Utah. In Utah, Orrin Hatch still doesn’t have a solid opponent, though he may yet. That makes Lugar the only game in town at the moment. That’s why the Lugar campaign is scouring the landscape for dirt on Mourdock.

When Lugar ran for president in 1996, he set out to prove it could be done using positive campaign tactics. I was invited to appear on a taping of “Washington Week in Review” on PBS during that campaign, and when I said Lugar was “taking the high road,” the late Jack Nelson of The Los Angeles Times responded by saying, “There aren’t many voters up there!” With 4 percent of the vote in Iowa and New Hampshire, Lugar learned that lesson.

I suspect he will fight hard and use whatever methods necessary in this race, but there will be times it will be difficult to know whom he is fighting against.

Richard Mourdock won’t defeat Richard Lugar in 2012, but Lugar could still lose this race.•

__________

The Lugar for Senate campaign commissioned a poll to rebut the Club for Growth poll that shows him trailing Richard Mourdock in the 2012 GOP primary.

The new Lugar numbers:  Lugar 45%, Mourdock 31%.

The poll gives Lugar a 53% approval rating.

“It confirms the grumblings we have heard on the campaign trail that people are wanting a change,” says Chris Conner, spokesman for GOP Senate candidate Richard Mourdock in reference to the Club for Growth poll that shows Mourdock up by 2 points.

” Provides some insight to why (Richard) Lugar is running TV adds so early,” he adds, “and to some of the negative comments being made by his campaign towards us in various forums. ”

The conservative Club for Growth released polling information today that shows Richard Lugar trailing in his primary bid for re-election to the Senate.  The numbers are 34-32 in favor of Richard Mourdock.  34% percent are undecided.

The Club for Growth says the poll measured Republican primary voters.   They also say that 69% say that it’s time for a change.  Club for Growth has been running attack ads against Lugar but has not endorsed (at least directly) Mourdock.  This is the sort of thing Mourdock needs to help his so far feeble fundraising.

The Richard Lugar re-election campaign has ordered its first television spots of the 2012 race.   The ads hit the air on Wednesday.

Look for Lugar to respond to the attack ad from the Club for Growth that is now running statewide.  The 2012 Senate race is shaping up as a marathon.

Negative ads bashing Dick Lugar for past votes to raise the debt ceiling hit the air this week.

The conservative Club for Growth is paying for them. They begin and end by pointing out that Lugar has been in the Senate for 35 years with no mention of Lugar opponent Richard Mourdock.

The sometimes controversial Club for Growth endorsed 9th District Republican Todd Young today in his bid to unseat Democratic Congressman Baron Hill.

Young is one of four congressional candidates around the country to win the endorsement today from the group seeking limited government and lower taxes.  It is led by former Indiana Congressman Chris Chocola.  The Club for Growth has endorsed just 21 candidates so far.