MoveOn.org plans demonstrations tomorrow in front of Sen. Evan Bayh’s offices in South Bend and Indianapolis. 

They will deliver a letter that says past donors and volunteers will not support the Democratic Senator’s re-election bid in 2010 if he votes with Republicans to prevent a final vote on health care legislation.

So much for gentle persuasion.

538.com has a list of Senate seats likely to change party hands next year.  Evan Bayh is 33rd on the list of 38, in other words the seat is not likely to go Republican.

Nevertheless, Marlin Stutzman is out campaigning full-time in a rented charter bus (with Michigan license plates.)

Stutzman looks like the most likely GOP nominee at this point.  What’s he’s doing and how voters respond on 24 Hour News 8 this evening.

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh will in the White House this afternoon to meet with President Obama on health care reform.

The meeting includes all 17 Senators in the Moderate Democrats Working Group initiated by Bayh.

Todd Rokita will make headlines today with his plan to take politics out of redistricting.  He will also be criticized.

Two things to consider:

1)  Rokita wants to be elected to higher office (governor, or, according to last week’s rumor, U. S. Senator) and he needs headlines to get there.  Give him credit for staying in his realm with this plan, if not within his authority.   As the state’s chief election officer, it is his role to comment on matters that influence elections.  Remember when Evan Bayh was Secretary of State and wanted to talk about education?

2)  Rokita is seeking to advance a political career and that requires political skills.  He is a Republican and GOP leaders in the General Assembly are speaking out against his plan even before he makes his first public presentation.  Maybe he should have brought them into the tent sooner.

Look for Hamilton County businessman Richard Behney to file an exploratory  committee to run for U.S. Senate in the next day or so.

Behney is a Republican with no electoral experience who organized the state Tea Party rallies on April 15th.   He hopes to build on the sentiments expressed at the Tea Parties in an effort to win the 2010 Republican nomination with the ultimate goal of unseating Democrat Evan Bayh next year.  A source says that Behney plans a Labor Day e-mail to Tea Party participants and a low key launch to his campaign.   A more formal announcement may come later.

Behney owns Attaboy Plumbing in Fishers but is not looking for comparisons to Joe.

I’ll be sharing my thoughts on Ted Kennedy’s legacy on Daybreak this morning. 

He had few but significant Indiana ties starting with his relationship with the Bayh family.   Former Senator Birch Bayh was a close friend who rescued Kennedy from a small plane crash in 1964.  When Evan Bayh was sworn in as Senator in 1999 one of the highlights of the day was Ted Kennedy’s appearance at a Capitol Hill reception in honor of the new Senator.

Kennedy will be known as a master legislator and one of his major accomplishments was the Job Training Partnership Act of 1982, co-authored by Indiana Senator Dan Quayle.  When Quayle ran for Vice President and his gravitas was questioned, Republicans often made reference to JTPA and his work with Kennedy as evidence of a meaningful record.

Indiana State Democratic Chairman Dan Parker grew up in Boston and served a college internship in Kennedy’s Capitol Hill office.  You might say that Kennedy’s legacy will live on here through Parker.

Finally, on a personal note, I worked in Iowa in 1979 and 1980 and covered Kennedy’s run for President.  His Iowa campaign was marked by large crowds (larger than those attracted by Jimmy Carter even though Carter won Iowa and the nomination) and by constant protests.  I believe that’s how Ted Kennedy will be remembered:  powerful, yet polarizing.

Topics to be discussed on Indiana Week in Review today:

Evan Bayh’s voting record.  Is there a shift to the right this year?

Cap and Trade opponents rally in Indianapolis

Baron Hill’s Tele-town hall plans

André Carson’s lack of town hall plans

Dress Code protest at Richmond High School

Mitch Daniels’ misunderstood remarks about motorcycle helmet use

It’s a slow time in Indiana politics but there’s lots bubbling below the surface.

-Will Republicans mount a serious challenge to Evan Bayh next year? 

-How many GOP candidates will test the waters?   (I’m better it’s more than the current 3.)

-Will Becky Skillman run for governor in 2012?  Will Mike Pence?

-Does a Pence candidacy trump all other Republicans?

-Will Greg Ballard run for re-election as mayor in 2011?

-How many Democrats will go to the post in 2011?

Feel free to add to the list of questions.

Somebody named Don Bates, Jr. announced a run for U.S. Senate this weekend.  According to his hometown newspaper in Richmond, Bates is a banker, a Republican, and he didn’t get an endorsement from the local Wayne County GOP Chairwoman.

The Bates announcement at the Wayne County Fair is no surprise to political insiders.  Bates campaigned recently at the state GOP Dinner.

But his approach is hardly conventional.  A Saturday announcement with just one appearance on the border of another state and no statewide news release is not a recipe for success, especially for a guy with no name recognition to speak of outside Richmond.

 By the way, Evan Bayh (the Democrat Bates hopes to unseat) gets the headline on the Richmond Palladium-Item website this morning.

Maybe you already thought of this but current events in Washington are a great lesson in democracy.

It’s government action bracketed by two elections.

Barack Obama seeks the change he was elected to deliver in 2008 through cap and trade legislation and health care reform.   He feels he has a mandate.   He is making good on campaign promises, at least attempting to make good. 

Meantime, members of Congress look ahead to the 2010 election and how it will affect them, not Obama.  Rep. Baron Hill (d-Seymour) endorsed Obama early on and supported him on cap and trade.  Now, with Republican Todd Young showing fundraising success in Hill’s 9th District and the GOP questioning campaign contributions to Hill on the eve of the cap and trade vote, he announces opposition to the current health care reform bill.  The President needs to help him now.

Sen. Evan Bayh, enthusiastic in support of Obama at Indiana rallies last year, is suddenly his old, cautious self again.  Republican Senator Richard Lugar beat him to the punch announcing support for Sonia Sotomayor.  Bayh won’t take a public position on cap and trade or health care reform.  The Democrat is on the ballot in 2010 and, though a prohibitive favorite for re-election, is taking no chances.  He’s guy in the spotlight now.

The policy issues of 2009 will be campaign issues in 2010 and Barack Obama is not on the ballot.  But, maybe you already though of that.