Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-8th District) made his first formal campaign stop at an Indianapolis factory today.  He toured Thomas and Skinner, a defense contractor, and gave brief remarks to the workers there.

Meantime, state Democratic Chairman Dan Parker says that an announcement will be made soon regarding the State Committee meeting where Ellsworth can expected to be chosen as the party nominee for Evan Bayh’s U.S. Senate seat.  It won’t take place until at least May 15th. Parker says nothing will prohibit Ellsworth from running TV ads during the primary season.  Ellsworth says he hasn’t talked about that yet.

He is still putting together a campaign organization and has no campaign office space yet.  At least 2 members of Ellsworth’s congressional staff have moved over to work on the campaign.  No campaign manager has been chosen yet.

Sen. Evan Bayh was just on CNN repeating his belief that he can accomplish more in a university setting or working for a foundation than in the Senate.  Those who know Bayh suggest that he already has his next stop programmed, even though he indicates that’s not the case.  Where will he end up?

There is plenty of speculation at the moment but here are the opportunities mentioned most often:

1-Bill Gates Foundation.  He has friends there and an off-handed mention of the Gates Foundation in a Washington Post column about Bayh perked me up.

2-NCAA President.  There is a vacancy to fill following the death of Myles Brand.  It might be a good fit for Bayh and the NCAA.  Would he have to move back to Indiana?

3-Purdue University President.  Unhappiness with the current the President is the source of most of this speculation.

Mara Candalaria Reardon called to say that she has no interest in Evan Bayh’s Senate seat at the moment.  She says that if it were an open election for an open seat (rather than a state committee nomination) it would be a different story.

Take her off the list.

Terry Burns at Marion County Voter Registration reports that just 2 signatures were certified for Tamyra d’Ippolito in the 7th Congressional district, 498 short of the requirement.

The noon deadline has passed and her name will not appear on the ballot.  Democrats are now free to hand pick a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat now held by the retiring Evan Bayh. 

Washington Republicans, meantime, are calling on Indiana Democrats to extend the filing deadline.  Fat chance.

With everyone asking questions about the “real” reason Evan Bayh chose to forego re-election here’s what I think:  it came to two possibilities.

1-He thought he would lose, or

2-The price of winning was too high. 

The second possibility is the most likely and could involve a number of factors including too much time required for campaigning in Indiana, ending up in the minority after a victory, being sentenced to the Senate for another six years, and family considerations.

I think it may be that simple.

Evan Bayh is out of the 2010 Senate race.  It’s a decision that has taken Republicans and Democrats by surprise. People in both parties are flabbergasted.

The official word will come in a news conference at IUPUI at 2 pm.. but we can tell you that Evan Bayh is stepping down from the Senate seat he has held for two terms.  He issued a statement that says, in part:

“My decision was not motivated by political concern. Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident

Democrats are distributing a new scientific poll conducted for the Democratic blog Daily Kos.  It shows Senator Evan Bayh defeating the two GOP challengers who have the most name ID.

Bayh leads Dan Coats by 20 points, 55% to 35%.  The race against John Hostettler is closer, 53% to 37%.

The poll was completed yesterday by Research 2000, a firm that has previously worked for WISH-TV.  It has a margin of error of 4%.

Governor Mitch Daniels disclosed this morning that he has spoken to Dan Coats on the phone twice this week.  He says he doesn’t know where the idea of a Coats Senate candidacy came from but said, “I don’t think it was Dan’s idea.”

Asked if he would support Coats, the governor said, “I support the Republican nominee.”

Daniels says a poll by the Republican Senatorial Committee included a Daniels/Evan Bayh match up and showed Daniels winning by 10. 

No one asked him to run.

Here are the key phrases in a statement just issued by Dan Coats”

“After much thoughtful consideration, I have authorized my supporters to begin gathering signatures as I test the waters for a potential challenge to Evan Bayh in 2010. Over the next few weeks, I will be talking to Hoosiers from all walks of life, and I will make a formal announcement regarding my intentions in the near future.”

That’s not a commitment to run.  It is an interesting development, nonetheless.

Look for Dan Coats to clear up any confusion about his plans to run for U.S. Senate  against Evan Bayh with a statement this afternoon.  A formal announcement next week is anticipated by Republican insiders.

Democrats take it seriously as they are already attacking the Coats record (including his votes in Virginia as recently as November),  though Bayh is the last guy to challenge someone on residency requirements.

State Senate Leader David Long, meantime, made it clear he is still for Marlin Stutzman in the GOP primary, so while this may no longer be confusing, it is complicated, even if Coats can make the signature requirement to get on the ballot.  It will be tough.